July 2026 RoMac Whole House Commodity Report: Costs Climb Across the Board as Tariffs and Steel Drive Prices Higher

RoMac Whole House Commodity Index, July 2026: $55,287. Up 1.8 percent from June and 7.2 percent above July 2025. The Index tracks wholesale costs for a 2,200-square-foot wood-frame home with a concrete stem wall in Central Florida.

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index for July 2026 increased 1.8 percent to $55,287, up from $54,288 in June. This is the second consecutive monthly increase and the highest level the Index has reached this year. Unlike June, when price gains were concentrated in a handful of manufactured products, July saw increases across structural lumber, engineered wood products, roofing materials, steel, and interior finish products. Construction costs are moving higher on a broader front, and builders should take note.

It is worth being clear about what drives these increases, because the causes differ by product. Lumber is moving higher because of tariffs, mill closures, and shifting log export patterns, not because demand has surged. Steel products are responding to domestic tariff policy and tighter mill capacity. Manufactured products are continuing to absorb higher petroleum and freight costs. Each category has its own story, but the result for builders is the same: costs are climbing across the board.

Housing Market Shows Mixed Signals

The national housing picture is more complicated heading into July than recent headlines suggest.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, housing starts in May 2026 came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,177,000. That is down 15.4 percent from April's revised 1,392,000 and 8.7 percent below the May 2025 pace. It is the lowest starts figure since May 2020 and came in well below the market forecast of 1,430,000. Single-family starts slipped 1.9 percent to an eight-month low of 882,000. In the South, where most of Florida's construction activity is concentrated, starts fell 17.0 percent to 594,000. The June 2026 starts report releases July 17 and will be worth watching closely to determine whether May was an outlier or the beginning of a softer trend.

On the existing home side, national sales in June 2026 totaled 4.09 million on a seasonally adjusted basis, down 2.4 percent from May. NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun noted that job gains of more than half a million since the start of the year continue providing support for the market. National inventory stood at 4.6 months of supply in June.

Florida's market is more nuanced than the headline numbers suggest. Statewide inventory sits at approximately 4.7 months of supply, and correctly priced homes in good locations continue to move. Home values have softened, though. Florida's statewide typical home value hit a fresh cycle low in May 2026, down roughly 3 percent year over year across most of the state. The Gulf Coast has seen the most pressure. Inland Central Florida has held up considerably better, and builders in RoMac's core market are operating in a more stable environment than the statewide numbers imply. One encouraging note: wage growth is currently outpacing home price appreciation statewide, which is gradually improving affordability even without much help from interest rates.

Affordability Is the Central Challenge, and Rates Are Only Part of It

Mortgage rates get most of the attention when people talk about housing affordability, but in Florida, they are only one piece of a larger problem.

According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49 percent for the week ending July 9, 2026, up slightly from 6.43 percent the prior week but down from 6.72 percent a year ago. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's Chief Economist, noted that rates have not moved much recently and that economic growth and affordability conditions continue improving for buyers who are actively in the market. Since mid-May, the 30-year rate has stayed within a fairly narrow range, which at least gives builders and buyers a stable backdrop to plan around, even if the rate level itself remains a headwind.

But in Florida, the rate is only one part of what buyers are dealing with. Homeowners insurance premiums average approximately $8,458 a year statewide, roughly three times the national average. That ranges from around $5,500 in inland counties like Polk and Marion to over $11,000 along the coast. For many buyers, insurance is now adding $300 to $700 or more to their monthly housing payment, which puts it in the same conversation as principal and interest. In some coastal markets, insurance has priced buyers out of homes they could otherwise afford, regardless of where mortgage rates sit.

There is also a deeper structural problem that does not go away with rate cuts. Home prices nationally have risen 53 percent since 2019, while median household incomes have grown only 24 percent. The share of first-time buyers in the market has fallen to 21 percent, compared to 44 percent in 1981, and the median age of a first-time buyer has reached a record high of 40. Rate relief helps at the margin, but it does not close a gap that large.

For builders, the insurance issue is actually an opportunity worth talking about. Homes built to current Florida building codes, with impact-resistant windows, hurricane straps, and qualifying roof systems, can qualify for meaningfully lower insurance premiums than comparable resale homes. In a market where insurance costs are now a deciding factor for many buyers, that is one of the strongest selling points new construction has going for it. It is an argument that does not depend on rates doing anything.

Central Florida is better positioned than most of the state on the insurance front. Inland markets carry lower exposure than coastal communities, and the region's job market and population growth continue supporting demand. But today's buyers are managing rates, insurance costs, and a long-running price-to-income gap all at the same time. Builders who recognize the full picture and communicate accordingly will have an edge over those simply waiting for rate relief.

Major Commodity Price Movers: Last 30 Days

July brought the widest spread of price increases seen so far in 2026. The causes vary by product, so it is worth walking through each category separately.

Structural lumber led the month higher, but this is a supply-side story, not a demand story. Southern Pine 2x12 rose 10.7 percent, Southern Pine 2x6 increased 7.5 percent, and standard Southern Pine framing lumber climbed more than 5 percent. Spruce studs advanced nearly 6 percent. Canadian softwood imports still carry a combined tariff burden of 35.9 percent, including the Section 232 tariff that stays in effect even after the recently revised antidumping and countervailing duty rates. Those revised rates do not take effect until August. On top of that, US sawmill output declined for a second consecutive quarter, with production capacity down 6 percent from a year ago. American logs are also moving to China after it lifted its pest-control import ban, pulling raw material away from domestic mills. The price increase is not being driven by a surge in home construction. It is being driven by a supply chain that has fewer inputs and fewer mills processing them.

Engineered wood products followed lumber higher. Truss pricing increased 8.8 percent during the month as lumber input costs strengthened.

Wire mesh posted the largest single increase of the month at 12.0 percent. That is a steel story. Domestic steel prices have been climbing through the summer on tight mill capacity, reduced imports from tariff pressure, and solid order books. Hot-rolled coil averaged approximately $1,109 per ton in June, and Nucor's Consumer Spot Price reached $1,130 per ton as of July 1. Wire mesh is steel-intensive and widely used in Florida concrete stem wall construction, so it absorbed those market conditions directly.

Roofing materials increased across more product lines than the number of architectural shingles alone suggests. Shingles rose 4.1 percent at the wholesale level, but the underlying manufacturer increases were larger. Owens Corning, CertainTeed, and Atlas each implemented increases of 5 to 10 percent effective June 1, and a second round of increases took effect July 1. Underlayment and roofing accessories were included in those same price letters and moved alongside shingles. Metal roofing components have seen the steepest increases of the year, with architectural metal up more than 25 percent since January, driven by Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum that currently sit at 50 percent. Builders pricing full roofing packages should not assume the shingles line captures the complete picture.

Outlook and Guidance for Builders

The next 30 to 45 days will likely bring continued pressure in lumber and steel-related categories. Manufactured product costs could begin to stabilize if energy markets keep improving, but that is not guaranteed yet.

Lumber deserves close attention heading into August. The revised antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood are expected to take effect next month, which would reduce the combined tariff from 35.9 percent to approximately 25.9 percent on many products. If those rates hold, there could be some relief on spruce and other Canadian species. Southern Yellow Pine is domestically produced, carries no import tariff, and has been gaining market share as a result of the tariff environment. It should remain relatively stable regardless of what happens with Canadian duties.

Steel-related products warrant ongoing attention. Wire mesh, rebar, and structural connectors are all supported by the same conditions that pushed prices higher in July: high import tariffs, domestic mills with healthy order books, and limited near-term capacity additions. There is no clear catalyst for meaningful steel cost relief in the next 30 to 45 days.

On the manufactured products side, the Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding signed June 14 remains the most important variable to watch. Oil has already pulled back roughly 20 percent from its 2026 highs, but Brent crude near $94 per barrel still leaves energy-driven costs well above pre-conflict levels. Meaningful relief in housewrap, trim, siding, and roofing products is more likely a late-summer or fall development than something builders can count on right now.

The national housing starts number is worth honest attention as well. May's 15.4 percent decline to the lowest pace since May 2020 is a real warning signal, even with the volatility that is normal in monthly data. Central Florida is better insulated than most markets, given the region's population growth and steady employment. But if starts stay soft nationally over the next few reports, demand for building materials will eventually soften with them, which could provide some offsetting downward pressure on prices.

Builders should also think about the insurance angle as a selling tool, not just a market challenge. New construction built to current Florida code standards carries a genuine insurance premium advantage over older resale inventory. In a market where insurance is now a deciding factor for many buyers, communicating that advantage clearly and early in the sales process is as valuable as competitive pricing.

Builders who stay disciplined about purchasing, track commodity categories individually rather than assuming a single direction, and keep escalation language in their contracts will be best positioned through the rest of 2026. The long-term fundamentals in Central Florida remain solid. Population growth, continued in-migration, and a persistent housing undersupply all support the market even as the near-term environment requires more careful navigation than it did earlier this year.

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index is based on wholesale costs of the base components to build a 2,200-square-foot wood-frame home with a concrete stem wall in Central Florida. The Index includes foundation, metal, concrete, block, stucco, cement, wood framing, siding, sheathing, trusses, roofing, drywall, insulation, windows, doors, trim, garage doors, and most building hardware. It does not include decor, electrical, plumbing, mechanical, landscaping, or labor. Because the Index uses current wholesale costs, it serves as a leading indicator of the direction of residential building material prices over the next 30 to 45 days.

Jake Trapp is the President of RoMac Building Supply in Central Florida.

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