January 2026 Whole House Commodity Report

By Don Magruder

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index (Index) for January 2026 began the year with a significant price run-up as lumber markets began to move up in mid-December 2025.  The Index increased 2.7 percent to $51,737, 1.7 percent higher than last January and the highest level since June 2025.  Most builders will experience sticker shock as these new lumber prices work their way through the supply chain.  It appears mills are finally reducing supply; tariffs are affecting markets, causing some to switch to different lumber species; and continued increases in fixed operating costs for mills and manufacturers are the drivers.  

There were declines and increases in other building material areas this month, reflecting product lines adapting to tariffs and competitive conditions, but overall pricing remains volatile. Supply chain uncertainty around long-term pricing and tariff disruptions remains a concern.

Here are the notable price movers over the last 30 days. 

1. 5/8” foundation rebar increased 2.9 percent on higher steel pricing from manufacturers.

2. Concrete added 3.5 percent on yearly increases passed down by suppliers. 

3. 5/8” CDX was down 3.1 percent on slower demand, but OSB sheathing increased 8.8 percent on tighter supply, driven by mill curtailments. 

4. Pine lumber skyrocketed in price.  2x4 pine was up 33.4 percent, 2x6 pine added 23.5 percent, and 2x12 pine eased up 1.1 percent. Mill curtailments and wood treaters coming into the market, preparing for spring, appear to be the primary catalysts. 

5. Drywall dropped 4.6 to 6.3 percent due to slow demand and ample supply.

6. Wood moulding prices decreased as manufacturers figured out tariff issues. Casing was down 29.2 percent, and base dropped 26.0 percent.  

7. Cement siding increased 5.9 percent year over year to cover manufacturing costs. 

8. PVC exterior trim declined 7.7 percent due to increased competition and a market with fewer buyers. 

The biggest problem in housing is, of course, demand. The most recent housing start report for October was disappointing, with only 1,246,000 starts, 7.8 percent below the prior year.  The significance is that the markets are reacting like housing starts are increasing in the dead of winter- not sure that is believable. The message appears to be that mills and manufacturers are finally throttling back supply, tariffs are affecting supply, and labor and other fixed costs are forcing manufacturers to raise prices despite slower sales. 

The real problem could be even simpler: when was the last time, during a housing slowdown of this type, that wages did not go down?  Most builders we spoke with say labor costs have not decreased; in fact, labor rates have risen, and many are complaining they can’t find labor.  This is likely a direct result of the ongoing immigration issues in the country.  

Bottom line: The deterioration of these supply chains today will create significant problems later, as housing starts to rebound.  No one can predict exactly when this will occur, but a sudden increase in housing starts above the 1.4-million-unit level will likely result in pricing and supply pressures for builders.  Higher prices, combined with weak housing starts, do not bode well for the long-term outlook.  

Builders should be very careful when quoting long-term projects, especially those starting in spring or summer. 

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index is based on wholesale costs for the base components required to build a 2,200-square-foot wood-frame home with a concrete stem wall in Central Florida. The Index includes foundation, metal, concrete, block, stucco, cement, wood framing, siding, sheathings, trusses, roofing, drywall, insulation, windows, doors, trim, garage doors, and most building hardware. It does not include décor, electrical, plumbing, mechanical, landscaping, or labor. Because the Index uses current wholesale costs, this should be a strong indicator of the direction of building prices for the next 30-45 days.

Don Magruder is the Chief Executive Officer of RoMac Building Supply in Central Florida.

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