October 2025 Whole House Commodity Report

By Don Magruder

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index (Index) for October 2025 increased by .06 percent to $50,957 despite continued unimpressive housing numbers nationally and in the state of Florida.  Nationally, housing starts were down 8.5 percent, while starts in Florida dropped 6.0 percent, according to the Census Bureau. The Florida Realtors report August home sales were down 3.5 percent as the housing inventory grew year-on-year to 5.3 months, or an increase of 17.8 percent.  

The Index increases were primarily fueled by rising costs of wood commodities, which in the last 30 days have seen an additional 10 percent increase in tariffs on lumber from the Trump administration and an acceleration of mill curtailments and closures due to low pricing and soft demand.  Plus, nothing has changed with the chaos in Washington, D.C., which could promote a sense of security for long-term housing growth.  In fact, with the actions against China and the massive drop in the markets, the chaos may be ramping up. 

The following are the notable price movers in the last 30 days for the Index.

1. Foundation wire mesh dropped 3.1 percent on soft demand.

2. CDX pine plywood dropped 1.9 percent, but OSB sheathing increased 4.9 percent as both sectors try to balance the supply with soft demand. 

3. 2x4 dimensional spruce was up 6.4 percent, 2x6 added 9.8 percent, and spruce studs increased 2.3 percent in response to the new tariffs.  Many traders are concerned about the pricing levels in the United States, and the tariffs could see reduced availability of European Spruce, which could continue to increase this sector. 

4. Pine dimensional prices followed the lead of spruce by increasing.  2x4 was up 1.3 percent, 2x6 added 8.5 percent, and 2x12 pine jumped 16.7 percent.  Pine mills, despite the tariffs on imported spruce, appear to be in no mood to lower pricing despite the housing numbers.

5. Truss pricing increased 3.0 percent on higher pine pricing and continued cost escalations in equipment and maintenance costs.  

6. Pocket frames were up 1.2 percent on higher spruce costs.

Builders, mills, and suppliers are getting more in a bind monthly with all these economic forces.  First, there have been few to no drops in labor costs as the immigration crackdown continues to slow production, making it difficult for everyone to find qualified craftspeople.  Next, keeping the equipment and trucks actually running has become more challenging as tariffs and canceled ships from overseas are pressuring parts availability and pricing.  Finally, the fixed costs for insurance and utilities continue to skyrocket.  

Slower demand and higher pricing are what economists call stagflation, and yes, it appears the housing market is dropping into it. Now, initial reports are starting to come out that foreclosures are rising, and with the median home price dropping by .4 percent in Florida year-over-year, builders will have a difficult time competing against a growing inventory of pre-owned homes on the market.  

It appears these markets will continue to remain challenging over the next few months.  Happy Halloween, and hopefully it won’t get too spooky.

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index is based on wholesale costs of the base components to build a 2,200-square-foot wood frame home with a concrete stem wall in Central Florida. The Index includes foundation, metal, concrete, block, stucco, cement, wood framing, siding, sheathings, trusses, roofing, drywall, insulation, windows, doors, trim, garage doors, and most building hardware. It does not include décor, electrical, plumbing, mechanical, landscaping, or labor. Because the Index uses current wholesale costs, this should be a strong indicator of the direction of building prices for the next 30-45 days.

Don Magruder is the Chief Executive Officer of RoMac Building Supply in Central Florida.

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