July 2025 Whole House Commodity Report

By Don Magruder

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index (Index) for July 2025 dropped to $51,565 or 1.5 percent from the prior month as the housing demand equation continued to decline due to higher interest rates, economic uncertainty, immigration enforcement, and renewed threats of tariffs.  While the decline in the Index would indicate tariffs are having little impact on pricing, the drops in pricing should have been more pronounced in the current market if not for the tariffs.  In fact, there were increases in several items on the Index in direct correlation to the United States tariff policy. 

While the pricing dropped over the last 30 days, the Index is 5.1 percent higher from last July, and this indicates inflation remains a problem in the building supply sector. 

National Housing Starts for the month of May, as reported by the Federal Reserve, were 1,256,000, which is the lowest rate since May 2020, when COVID-19 was raging in the country.  According to the Florida Realtors Association, home sales for May were down 5.7 percent, with median pricing falling 2.7 percent, while housing inventories rose to 5.6 months, or 30.2 percent more than last year. The numbers are clear: the housing market is struggling with demand.

Here is the harsh reality that builders and suppliers are facing. Since last year, pricing is up for materials, housing starts and sales are down with rising inventories, and this doesn’t include the problems associated with the immigration crackdown in the housing industry.  The best way to describe the current environment for housing is stagflation. 

Here are the main price movers on this month’s Index as compared to last year. 

1. Foundation metal rebar was up 5.1 percent, and foundation mesh was up 7.4 percent on higher steel tariffs.

2. The sheathing market continues to be the best indicator of the problems in housing demand.  CDX pine plywood was down 12.5 percent while OSB retreated $5 per thousand or about 2.0 percent.  

3. The pine market was mixed based on width and length.  2x4-16 pine was down 8.6 percent, 2x6-16 pine added .5 percent while 2x12-16 pine dropped 4.3 percent.  Pricing fluctuations varied a lot by length. 

4. Roof truss prices dropped 4.3 percent, primarily due to the drop in 2x4 pine pricing. 

5. Pine-treated lumber dropped 7.3 percent while 4x4-treated lumber retreated 7.5 percent.

6. House wrap added 2.5 percent in pricing. 

The uncertainty in new tariffs announced this week will keep the markets roiled, and it appears immigration enforcement may become the biggest issue for many builders over the next few months as labor becomes harder to find. 

The problem for all areas in construction is trying to calculate future job pricing and timetables, and oh, hurricane season is predicted to start cranking up in August.  Builders should expect higher pricing if tariffs are enacted and immigration enforcement continues, which could lead to more stagflation in the housing industry.  

Don’t expect things to get easier in the next month or so.  

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index is based on wholesale costs of the base components to build a 2,200-square-foot wood frame home with a concrete stem wall in Central Florida. The Index includes foundation, metal, concrete, block, stucco, cement, wood framing, siding, sheathings, trusses, roofing, drywall, insulation, windows, doors, trim, garage doors, and most building hardware. It does not include décor, electrical, plumbing, mechanical, landscaping, or labor. Because the Index uses current wholesale costs, this should be a strong indicator of the direction of building prices for the next 30-45 days.

Don Magruder is the Chief Executive Officer of RoMac Building Supply in Central Florida.

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