September 2025 Whole House Commodity Report

By Don Magruder

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index (Index) for September 2025 dropped to $50,644, or .8 percent, from the prior month as the housing market nationally and in Florida continues to struggle to find buyers and momentum. The Index is up 2.1 percent, 0.1 percent from last September, despite an absolute price capitulation in the wood commodity markets over the previous two months. The slow burn of increased prices related to higher tariffs, labor costs, and fixed operations costs continues to hamper a real, meaningful drop in housing costs.  In short, the actual cost of building a home has not decreased, despite a decline in housing sales.

Here is a snapshot of the housing numbers, which continue to show builders are struggling to find buyers. According to the Florida Realtors, in July, closed home sales decreased by 2.8 percent, housing inventories rose by 22.7 percent to 5.4 months, and median home prices dropped by 1.7 percent. Housing Core CPI inflation in August was up 4.2 percent from the prior year, while new July housing permits nationally were down 5.7 percent from the prior year. Housing starts in July were up 12.9 percent from the prior year, which was a bright spot, but overall starts remained at historically lower levels. 

The Federal Reserve is meeting in the next two days to determine interest rates, and most analysts believe the Fed will only reduce rates by a quarter point, with some hoping for a half-point drop. A small interest rate cut will have minimal effects on the housing market as overall costs remain high, and it could put buyers even more on the sidelines, hoping for further drops in the future. Tariffs, land costs, immigration and labor issues, fixed costs, and material costs remain significant headwinds for the housing sector. 

Here are the significant price movers from last month’s Index.  The lower prices in the wood market can be attributed to decreased demand and an abundant supply.

1. Foundation rebar increased 3.4 percent on higher steel tariffs.

2. CDX pine dropped by .5 percent while OSB sheathing gave back 8.9 percent.

3. Dimensional pine lumber dropped from 9.0 to 12.4 percent across all sizes.

4. Dimensional spruce was down 10.9 to 12.4 percent while studs retreated 9.6 percent.

5. Borate-treated 2x4s dropped 8.6 percent, and treated 4x4s were down 5.7 percent.

6. Roof trusses were down 1.3 percent on lower wood costs.

7. Steel anchors increased to 16.0 to 31.3 percent due to higher tariffs.

8. Architectural shingles dropped 2.9 percent on weak demand. 

9. Wood mouldings were up on average by 20 percent due to heavy tariffs on Brazil.

10. Interior doors were up 14.4 percent due to higher jamb and moulding costs resulting from tariffs. 

Slower demand and tariffs were the drivers in pricing this month. I also believe the tariff issues will not be a one-month event, as many importers and suppliers have been gradually rolling the costs into the system to remain competitive with stock on hand. 

A lackluster hurricane season, which is good for everyone but bad for pricing, is not providing a catalyst for pricing, and I am not sure how much the lumber markets can capitulate on pricing until mills and manufacturers shutter production.  

It is a double-edged sword for builders.  While many want and need lower pricing, it is also the best barometer as to the overall health of the housing market, which, at best, is very shaky now.

The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index is based on wholesale costs of the base components to build a 2,200-square-foot wood frame home with a concrete stem wall in Central Florida. The Index includes foundation, metal, concrete, block, stucco, cement, wood framing, siding, sheathings, trusses, roofing, drywall, insulation, windows, doors, trim, garage doors, and most building hardware. It does not include décor, electrical, plumbing, mechanical, landscaping, or labor. Because the Index uses current wholesale costs, this should be a strong indicator of the direction of building prices for the next 30-45 days.

Don Magruder is the Chief Executive Officer of RoMac Building Supply in Central Florida.

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