July 2025 Lumber & Commodity Report

By Don Magruder

The RoMac Building Supply Wood Commodity Index (Index) for July 2025 decreased 1.8 percent to $384.21 per thousand as the sheathing market continued to capitulate to the housing demand equation. May housing starts were the slowest in 5 years, and with home sales declining 5.7 percent in Florida for the month of May, builders and dealers are searching for buyers. High interest rates, increasing housing inventories, tariff concerns, economic uncertainty, and immigration enforcement are providing plenty of headwinds for the market. 

The dimension lumber portion of the composite increased in the last month by 2.9 percent to $482.34 per thousand as mills curtailed supply and additional duties rattled the supply chain.  Spruce studs were up 3.0 to 6.3 percent, depending on size, while dimensional spruce steadily increased in pricing, 3.6 to 10.2 percent. Wide with pine was mixed from a 4.4 percent increase on 2x12-12 to a 5.3 percent decline on 2x12-16. 2x4 pine declined 12.3 percent as the spring treated lumber season fizzled out. 

The sheathing portion of the Index declined 6.7 percent to $310.90 per thousand as demand cooled across the country. CDX pine dropped 5.3 to 12.3 percent, depending on thickness, and the heavy declines in OSB subsided with only a $5 per thousand decline or about 2.0 percent. The sheathing markets are the least vulnerable to tariffs in the South, and probably best represent the impact of slower housing demand. 

Currently, the housing headwinds of the last few months do not appear to be easing, and if anything, over the last week, these headwinds could intensify with harsher tariffs and increased immigration enforcement.  Keep in mind, the immigration enforcement could slow production down for builders who have work that would impact housing start numbers, and who knows what the impact of the 2025 hurricane season will bring.  Don’t forget that in 2024, production in Florida and many areas of the South was impeded in August, September, and October.  

Builders need to monitor pricing closely for long-term bids, and this also includes pricing for labor.  The headwinds are continuing to blow.  

The RoMac Wood Commodity Index is a weighted lumber and sheathing composite based on usage in Central Florida. By using wholesale pricing, the Index is a good indicator of the pricing direction for the next 30 days.

Don Magruder is the Chief Executive Officer of RoMac Building Supply in Central Florida, he is a former president of the Southeast Mississippi Home Builders Association and a past Associate Vice President of the Home Builders Association of Lake County.

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