May 2025 Lumber & Commodity Report

By Don Magruder

The RoMac Building Supply Wood Commodity Index (Index) for May 2025 decreased 6.4 percent to $407.71 per thousand as demand continues to erode as builder confidence declines, and the spring selling season continues to underperform. Housing starts in April fell 1.7 percent from the previous year, and permits fell 4.7 percent from the previous month.  The Moody’s downgrade of the United States’ credit rating on Sunday has fueled increases in the bond market, which does not bode well for any relief in mortgage rates. The overall price levels of the commodity markets are at a point where mills and producers will have to contemplate curtailments or temporary mill closures.

The lumber portion of the Index dropped 6.7 percent as the spruce markets experienced hard declines from $23 to $65 per thousand, depending on the size of the board. Prime lengths of 2x4s gave back on average 12 percent, while 2x6 was down in the 13 percent plus range.  Pine 2x4s added 7.2 percent, and wide-width pine was flat to slightly up. Overall, the demand equation and sentiment are weighing down prices. 

The sheathing portion of the Index did not do any better with a 6.1 percent decline to $368.74 per thousand.  OSB over the last 30 days gave back $40 per thousand or more than $1.20 per sheet, while CDX added on average $18 per thousand on a mill closure. The 3.2 percent increase in CDX offsets the huge decline in OSB. The level of pricing in the OSB sheathing markets reflects anemic demand, and mills will have to make decisions quickly on production.   

While the tariffs are hurting overall costs, the overall economy is tapping down housing demand and causing real issues in commodities. The only answer for increased pricing is a reduced supply or a bounce in demand. At this point, it seems likely that mills will be forced to cut supply through curtailments. Builders could see some spikes in pricing as they did in CDX over the last month if curtailments become more prominent.  

While lower pricing is usually celebrated, in the context of the current economic environment and housing demand, builders should be concerned.  

The RoMac Wood Commodity Index is a weighted lumber and sheathing composite based on usage in Central Florida. By using wholesale pricing, the Index is a good indicator of the pricing direction for the next 30 days.

Don Magruder is the Chief Executive Officer of RoMac Building Supply in Central Florida, he is a former president of the Southeast Mississippi Home Builders Association and a past Associate Vice President of the Home Builders Association of Lake County.

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