March 2026 Whole House Commodity Report
- Don Magruder
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
By Don Magruder
Just 30 days ago, in the February RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index Report, there was no mention of a potential war with Iran. At that time, the outlook still reflected optimism for a strong kickoff to the spring homebuying season. However, the situation has changed rapidly since then.
The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index has dropped a meager 0.1 since February to $52,865, as declines in truss pricing offset gains in other commodities. The prospects for the spring home-selling season are uncertain, given the war and economic disruptions. The immediate concern for pricing is not demand, but trucking availability and inflation due to the high cost of diesel, which has risen by more than $1 a gallon in many areas.
Four other areas in the broader economy that will affect homebuyers over the next few months are the stock market, which represents a source of wealth for many senior homebuyers; 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds, which help determine consumer interest rates; mortgage rates; and, of course, gas prices, which influence overall consumer sentiment. Consider the following changes in these rates from February 26, just two days before the war with Iran began, through last Friday.
The stock market is down from $49,499.20 to $46,558.47, representing a 5.9% drop.
10-year United States Treasury Bonds are up from 3.962% to 4.283%, which will drive up interest rates.
Per Fannie Mae, the 30-Year mortgage rate is up from 5.98% to 6.11%.
According to GasBuddy, gas prices have risen by 72 cents per gallon during this period.
These impacts are coming at the worst possible time for builders and will likely require many to revise their 2026 housing forecasts.
Housing starts remain unimpressive, particularly for single-family homes. In January 2026, total housing starts rose 9.5% year-over-year, but this increase was largely driven by a 54.2% year-over-year jump in multi-family construction, with the Northeast accounting for most of the growth. Single-family housing starts were down 6.5% year-over-year. Yes, January was cold, but most Januaries in America are cold. It appears the multi-family starts are a one-off, and housing starts will need further strengthening in the single-family sector to show continued year-over-year growth
Here are the notable movers on the Index over the last 30 days.
Truss Pricing declined 3.9% on lower pricing in certain grades of pine lumber.
Foundation rebar was up 5.7% due to higher import pricing.
CDX pine plywood was up 7.7% on a tighter supply, while OSB increased 1.8% on minimally increased demand.
2x4-16 pine was up 2.2% while 2x12 added 3.2% and 2x6 was up 2.0%. Pricing fluctuated based on length availability.
Overall, the spruce markets remained tepid as the industry awaited major duty and tariff decisions later this spring. 2x4 lumber was flat, 2x6 lumber rose 0.9%, and studs increased by a meager 0.3%.
2x4 pine borate added 2.1% while 4x4-8 treated pine dropped 1.4%.
Pocket frames added 5% on higher wood costs.
Here are my key concerns for the next 30 days.
If the war continues to escalate and the broader economy continues to experience negative impacts, the spring homebuying season is likely to slow. Demand from the spring farm season, higher diesel pricing, and driver shortages, including requirements for English fluency, could significantly impact transportation, particularly in Florida. Finally, oil and energy costs will begin to drive up product costs, especially for items like roofing and plastic products. Many manufacturers have already announced price increases for April.
Slower sales and higher costs are not needed by builders, and the best thing that could happen is for this war to end. Let’s see what surprises the next 30 days may hold, but a strong kickoff to the spring homebuying season remains essential.
The RoMac Building Supply Whole House Commodity Index is based on wholesale costs of the base components for building a 2,200-square-foot wood-frame home with a concrete stem wall in Central Florida. The Index includes foundation, metal, concrete, block, stucco, cement, wood framing, siding, sheathings, trusses, roofing, drywall, insulation, windows, doors, trim, garage doors, and most building hardware. It does not include décor, electrical, plumbing, mechanical, landscaping, or labor. Because the Index uses current wholesale costs, this should be a strong indicator of the direction of building prices for the next 30-45 days.
Don Magruder is the former CEO of RoMac Building Supply in Central Florida and currently acts as a Senior Advisor.